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Hardwood availability forecast

The key assumptions underpinning the headline hardwood forecast scenario include:

  • In private woodland, harvesting is limited to areas with evidence of recent thinning activity.
  • The estate of Forestry England, Forestry and Land Scotland and Natural Resources Wales is managed according to current management plans.

Under the above scenario, hardwood availability for Great Britain averages 1.6 million m3 a year over the 50-year period (Table 2.4b). The majority (89%) of this hardwood is projected to come from private sector woodland. If these woodlands were managed to maximise total production, the forecast would be much higher, as illustrated in the full National Forest Inventory report available at www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/.

Table 2.4b Hardwood availability forecasts

Annual average
in the period
England Wales Scotland GB
thousand m3 overbark standing
FE/FLS/NRW1
2013 – 2016 126 12 9 147
2017 – 2021 92 11 9 111
2022 – 2026 110 17 10 137
2027 – 2031 86 12 10 108
2032 – 2036 99 14 15 128
2037 – 2041 129 19 24 172
2042 – 2046 189 56 31 276
2047 – 2051 116 19 40 175
2052 – 2056 134 28 45 208
2057 – 2061 146 28 64 237
Private sector2
2013 – 2016 122 20 83 225
2017 – 2021 333 46 139 519
2022 – 2026 538 77 193 808
2027 – 2031 720 100 233 1054
2032 – 2036 825 115 262 1202
2037 – 2041 1047 153 367 1567
2042 – 2046 1915 243 586 2743
2047 – 2051 1678 227 675 2580
2052 – 2056 1254 198 554 2006
2057 – 2061 645 139 343 1127
Total hardwood        
2013 – 2016 249 32 92 373
2017 – 2021 425 58 148 631
2022 – 2026 648 94 203 945
2027 – 2031 806 112 244 1162
2032 – 2036 923 130 277 1330
2037 – 2041 1176 171 391 1738
2042 – 2046 2104 299 616 3019
2047 – 2051 1795 246 715 2755
2052 – 2056 1388 227 599 2214
2057 – 2061 791 167 406 1364

Source: National Forest Inventory: 50-year forecast of hardwood availability (Forestry Commission, April 2014)

Notes:

1. The estate of Forestry England (FE), Forestry and Land Scotland (FLS) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) is assumed to be managed according to current management plans.

2. In private woodland, harvesting is assumed to be limited to areas with evidence of recent thinning activity. If these woodlands were managed to maximise total production, the forecast would be much higher, as illustrated in the full National Forest Inventory report available at www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/.

4. An update to these figures is due to be published in 2020.

5. To convert hardwood ‘overbark standing’ into green tonnes multiply by 0.900.  See the Sources chapter for more details on conversion factors.

These figures are outside the scope of National Statistics. For further information see the Sources chapter.

 

Additional resources

Sources chapter: Timber

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