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About the model

To set appropriate cull targets deer managers need to predict the effect of culling on future deer populations. To do this you need firstly to have an estimate of current deer numbers. To predict the population in the following year you need to add the number of young deer likely to be recruited to the population and subtract the number likely to die.

To help you with this process, we have built a deer population dynamics model, which runs in Microsoft® Excel®.

Also included within the spreadsheet is assistance with:

  • Setting the initial age structure of the population
  • Determining confidence limits around estimates of calf:hind ratio
  • Determining past population size using cohort analysis.

The model is currently designed for use for red deer and comes with a manual that provides advice on how to set the population parameters for this deer species. It can, however, be adapted for use for any deer species.

How to obtain the model

The model is available to anyone free of charge.

To request a copy of the model, email Robin Gill with an idea of what you want the model for. If it seems like the model might be of use to you then you will be:

  • Emailed a copy of the model and the manual
  • Kept informed of updates and asked if you want an updated version
  • Able to send any feedback about the model.


Forest Research cannot take any responsibility for decisions made as a result of model output.


Dr Robin Gill

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