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Themes: Measuring, modelling and forecasting

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185 Search Results

  • Research

    New evidence to inform woodland creation for climate change mitigation

      This project was commissioned to estimate and compare the potential for carbon sequestration and GHG emissions mitigation that could be realised by creating different types of woodlands. The analysis assesses the influence of different tree species, site and management factors, including the eventual use of harvested wood, on the potential carbon...
  • Publications

    Novel dendrochronological modelling demonstrates that decades of reduced stem growth predispose trees to Acute Oak Decline

    Lead Author: Katy Reed
    • Novel dendrochronological modelling was developed to explore oak stem growth trends. • Trees with long-term AOD symptoms may have been predisposed many decades earlier. • Diseased trees struggle to take advantage of favourable growing conditions. • Historic episodes of stress may impact the future resilience of oaks to disturbance.
  • Publications

    Diameter, height and volume increment single tree models for improved Sitka spruce in Great Britain

    The British forestry sector lacks reliable dynamic growth models for stands of improved Sitka spruce, the most important commercial forest type in Great Britain. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by trialling a new modelling framework and to lay the foundations of a future dynamic growth simulator for that forest type. […]
  • Publications

    Simultaneous estimation of Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii natural regeneration emergence and survival through lifetime analysis

    We developed a climatic sensitive model to simultaneously estimate the emergence and survival of Corsican pine natural regeneration in Spain through lifetime analysis. This work is highly relevant for managing the species in a context of climate change. Our modelling approach represents a breakthrough in the state of the art of lifetime analysis.
  • Research

    The National Forest Estate Biodiversity Index

    Forest Research, Forestry & Land Scotland and Forestry England have co-developed an evidence based, repeatable approach for assessing the biodiversity potential of the National Forest Estate. Several extent, condition, connectivity and diversity metrics are measured and aggregated into a Combined Biodiversity Index. An online, interactive tool allows users to explore mapped scores.
  • Publications

    Dynamic top height models for several major forest tree species in Great Britain

    Lead Author: Ruben Manso
    New dynamic top height models for 10 major species in Great Britain for pure, even-aged stands
  • Research

    Soil organic carbon changes in UK forest soils

    Rita Razauskaite, PhD studentship, University of Aberdeen (2015-2018) Summary Forest soils contain large amounts of carbon, which can be lost through forest operations or changing environmental conditions. As forests are perennial with infrequent disturbance, soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation differs from highly disturbed land uses, with significant accumulation occurring in deeper soil horizons...
  • Publications

    Forest damage by deer depends on cross‐scale interactions between climate, deer density and landscape structure

    Lead Author: Chloe Bellamy
    This journal paper investigates the factors that drive deer damage to woodlands using the National Forest Inventory sample square data. We found that the likelihood of damage to trees depends on cross-scale interactions between climate, deer density and landscape structure. The complex interactive effects uncovered are difficult to interpret. We therefore provide an interactive Deer Damage Tool for practitioners to visualize how afforestation is likely to influence the probability of deer damage in different forests and regions across Britain.
  • Publications

    A sequential multi-level framework to improve habitat suitability modelling

    Lead Author: Chloe Bellamy
    We provide a sequential framework for improved multi-scale habitat suitability modelling or species distribution modelling. We apply it to the lesser horseshoe bat in Britain to demonstrate its improved accuracy and ecological inference.
  • Research

    Exploring scenarios of forest diversification and ecosystem services impacts

    This page describes our work carrying out research into the delivery of forest ecosystem services at the forest scale.
  • Publications

    Predicting hedgehog mortality risks on British roads using habitat suitability modelling

    An analysis of citizen science hedgehog roadkill data has revealed why, when and where vehicle-hedgehog collisions are most likely to occur. The approach involved a multi-scale habitat suitability model. Suburban areas with mixtures of urban and grassland were found to be roadkill hotspots.
  • Research

    BioCoRe: An interactive/adaptable landscape ecology approach for targeting restoration

    How we manage priority habitats within increasingly fragmented landscapes is a critical conservation issue.   Practitioners and policy makers are often faced with the dilemma of deciding where to focus limited resources, but evidence on where particular actions will have the largest return on investment is lacking.  To aid this decision...
  • Publications

    Forestry Facts & Figures 2019

    Lead Author: Forest Research
    A summary of statistics about woodland and forestry in the UK.
  • Research

    Exploring changes in ecosystem services under varying scenarios

    Exploration of the resilience of woodlands to future change by assessing how ecosystem service values and natural capital stocks of woodlands may be affected by change through the application of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA) scenarios and different management approaches, e.g. forest diversification through the application of forest management alternatives
  • Research

    Detecting young trees from space

    FR have established how to detect young trees from space using synthetic aperture RADAR and machine learning techniques. This will support the monitoring of the planting of tens of thousands of restock sites and new woodland across Britain. In searching for a solution researchers hypothesised that even if the trees are too small to see, maybe we could ‘feel’ them using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). A different technique to utilising optical data, SAR provides ‘fuzzy’ data on the presence of objects, their size, orientation and texture. The research found that this was possible and data on whether sites had tree cover or not has been derived for extensive areas of Britain and NFI are working to operationalise the process.
  • Research

    Assessing the resilience of UK forests to extreme climatic events

    This project aims to quantify the historic impact and legacy of extreme climatic events on UK forests using tree-ring chronologies, climate and soil data. It focuses on species of major importance to UK forestry in order to provide the information basis for building adaptive capacity into future forest planning and decision making.
  • Publications

    Trends in surface water chemistry in afforested Welsh catchments

    Lead Author: Samantha Broadmeadow
    Analysis of 22 years of water chemistry data from afforested Welsh catchments revealed trends indicative of recovery from acidification
  • Research

    BRIGIT – A consortium for enhancing UK surveillance and response to Xylella fastidiosa

    A multi-partner GB wide transdisciplinary project that takes a holistic approach to enhance diagnostics, identify factors that could lead to spread and formulate response strategies to mitigate the devastating effects of X. fastidiosa.