Development of improved methods for detection, control and eradication of pine wood nematodes in support of EU Plant Health Policy (REPHRAME)
Extending the capability of existing models to identify the risk posed by pine wood nematodes to the rest of Europe and the possible impact of climate change on its spread
- Development of fundamental models of stem volume
Developing improved single tree volume estimation models for both coniferous and broadleaved tree species. The new models are specifically designed to provide more reliable estimates, particularly for larger trees that might be expected under alternative silvicultural management regimes.
- Modelling Pine Wilt Disease
Working with partners in Germany and Portugal to model the risk of expression of pine wilt disease (PWD) under projected climatic scenarios.
- Testing of soil carbon model predictive performance
Testing a recently-developed, improved sub-model of soil carbon dynamics (intended for incorporation into the FR CSORT and CARBINE models), by meta-analysis of model predictions against published estimates of soil carbon stocks and CO2 fluxes.
Peer-reviewed journal articles
Gruffudd HR, Schröder T, Jenkins TAR and Evans HF (2018) Modelling pine wilt disease (PWD) for current and future climate scenarios as part of a pest risk analysis for pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer) Nickle in Germany, Journal of Plant Diseases and Protection https://doi.org/10.1007/s41348-018-0197-x
Gruffudd HR, Jenkins TAR and Evans HF (2016) Using an evapo-transpiration model (ETpN) to predict the risk and expression of symptoms of pine wilt disease (PWD) across Europe, Biological Invasions 18(10): 2823-2840. DOI:10.1007/s10530-016-1173-7
Douglas RJ and Whittle-Gruffudd HR (2016) Nonexistence results for relaxation spectra with compact support. Inverse Problems 32(3)
Scientific conferences: presentations or posters
Thomas Schröder and Hannah Gruffudd (2016). Risk Assessment for the pinewood nematode in Germany considering climate change. German Plant Protection Conference, 20-23 September 2016, Halle, Germany
Hannah Gruffudd, Tom Jenkins and Hugh Evans (2015). Process Modelling to Predict Future Impacts of Pests. IMPACT project final conference, 12 May, 2015, Bangor, Wales
Gruffudd H, Evans HF and Jenkins T (2013). Using an evapo-transpiration model to predict the current and future range and severity of pine wilt disease caused by pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Europe. IUFRO/REPHRAME International Conference on Pine Wilt Disease, Braunschweig, Germany, 2013