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Themes: Measuring, modelling and forecasting

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187 Search Results

  • Publications
    Forestry publication document

    Revised valuation of flood regulation services of existing forest cover to inform natural capital accounts.
    Lead Author: Samantha Broadmeadow
    The ability of trees, woodlands and forests to reduce downstream flooding is increasingly recognised and valued by society, driving a demand for assessments of this important ecosystem service. This study updates a previous evaluation (Broadmeadow et al., 2018) with improved estimates for the volume of flood water potentially removed by woodland or retained by its […]
  • Publications

    Intimate mixtures of Scots pine and Sitka spruce do not increase resilience to spring drought
    Lead Author: Tom Ovenden
    Understanding how we can increase the resilience of forest systems to future extreme drought events is increasingly important as these events become more frequent and intense. Diversifying production forests using intimate mixtures of trees with complementary functional traits is considered as one promising silvicultural approach that may increase drought resilience. However, the direction and magnitude […]
  • Research

    The potential for agroforestry to reduce net GHG emissions in Scotland through the Woodland Carbon Code

     This research examines the potential of agroforestry to contribute to meeting greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets outlined in Scotland’s Climate Change Plan, and the economic viability of adopting agroforestry practices. It finds agroforestry has potential to sequester carbon and is generally financially viable, but benefits vary according to different factors.
  • Research

    New evidence to inform woodland creation for climate change mitigation

     A project was commissioned to estimate and compare the potential for carbon sequestration (net CO2 uptake) and GHG emissions mitigation that could be realised by creating different types of woodlands. The analysis assesses the influence of different tree species, site and management factors, including the eventual use of harvested wood, on...
  • Publications

    Novel dendrochronological modelling demonstrates that decades of reduced stem growth predispose trees to Acute Oak Decline
    Lead Author: Katy Reed
    • Novel dendrochronological modelling was developed to explore oak stem growth trends. • Trees with long-term AOD symptoms may have been predisposed many decades earlier. • Diseased trees struggle to take advantage of favourable growing conditions. • Historic episodes of stress may impact the future resilience of oaks to disturbance.
  • Publications

    Diameter, height and volume increment single tree models for improved Sitka spruce in Great Britain

     The British forestry sector lacks reliable dynamic growth models for stands of improved Sitka spruce, the most important commercial forest type in Great Britain. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by trialling a new modelling framework and to lay the foundations of a future dynamic growth simulator for that forest type. […]
  • Publications

    Simultaneous estimation of Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii natural regeneration emergence and survival through lifetime analysis

     We developed a climatic sensitive model to simultaneously estimate the emergence and survival of Corsican pine natural regeneration in Spain through lifetime analysis. This work is highly relevant for managing the species in a context of climate change. Our modelling approach represents a breakthrough in the state of the art of lifetime analysis.
  • Research

    The National Forest Estate Biodiversity Index

     Forest Research, Forestry & Land Scotland and Forestry England have co-developed an evidence based, repeatable approach for assessing the biodiversity potential of the National Forest Estate. Several extent, condition, connectivity and diversity metrics are measured and aggregated into a Combined Biodiversity Index. An online, interactive tool allows users to explore mapped scores.
  • Publications

    Dynamic top height models for several major forest tree species in Great Britain
    Lead Author: Ruben Manso
    New dynamic top height models for 10 major species in Great Britain for pure, even-aged stands
  • Research

    Soil organic carbon changes in UK forest soils

     Rita Razauskaite, PhD studentship, University of Aberdeen (2015-2018) Summary Forest soils contain large amounts of carbon, which can be lost through forest operations or changing environmental conditions. As forests are perennial with infrequent disturbance, soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation differs from highly disturbed land uses, with significant accumulation occurring in deeper soil horizons...
  • Publications

    Forest damage by deer depends on cross‐scale interactions between climate, deer density and landscape structure
    Lead Author: Chloe Bellamy
    This journal paper investigates the factors that drive deer damage to woodlands using the National Forest Inventory sample square data. We found that the likelihood of damage to trees depends on cross-scale interactions between climate, deer density and landscape structure. The complex interactive effects uncovered are difficult to interpret. We therefore provide an interactive Deer Damage Tool for practitioners to visualize how afforestation is likely to influence the probability of deer damage in different forests and regions across Britain.
  • Publications

    A sequential multi-level framework to improve habitat suitability modelling
    Lead Author: Chloe Bellamy
    We provide a sequential framework for improved multi-scale habitat suitability modelling or species distribution modelling. We apply it to the lesser horseshoe bat in Britain to demonstrate its improved accuracy and ecological inference.
  • Research

    Exploring scenarios of forest diversification and ecosystem services impacts

     This page describes our work carrying out research into the delivery of forest ecosystem services at the forest scale.
  • Publications

    Predicting hedgehog mortality risks on British roads using habitat suitability modelling

     An analysis of citizen science hedgehog roadkill data has revealed why, when and where vehicle-hedgehog collisions are most likely to occur. The approach involved a multi-scale habitat suitability model. Suburban areas with mixtures of urban and grassland were found to be roadkill hotspots.
  • Research

    BioCoRe: An interactive/adaptable landscape ecology approach for targeting restoration

     How we manage priority habitats within increasingly fragmented landscapes is a critical conservation issue.   Practitioners and policy makers are often faced with the dilemma of deciding where to focus limited resources, but evidence on where particular actions will have the largest return on investment is lacking.  To aid this decision...
  • Publications
    Forestry publication document

    Forestry Facts & Figures 2019
    Lead Author: Forest Research
    A summary of statistics about woodland and forestry in the UK.
  • Research

    Exploring changes in ecosystem services under varying scenarios

     Exploration of the resilience of woodlands to future change by assessing how ecosystem service values and natural capital stocks of woodlands may be affected by change through the application of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA) scenarios and different management approaches, e.g. forest diversification through the application of forest management alternatives
  • Research

    Detecting young trees from space

     FR have established how to detect young trees from space using synthetic aperture RADAR and machine learning techniques. This will support the monitoring of the planting of tens of thousands of restock sites and new woodland across Britain. In searching for a solution researchers hypothesised that even if the trees are too small to see, maybe we could ‘feel’ them using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). A different technique to utilising optical data, SAR provides ‘fuzzy’ data on the presence of objects, their size, orientation and texture. The research found that this was possible and data on whether sites had tree cover or not has been derived for extensive areas of Britain and NFI are working to operationalise the process.