Land use change has been one of the major influences on UK forests and wooded landscapes over the last 50 years, with the future likely to be affected through changes in climate and by population pressure. Scenario analysis has become an increasing area of interest to explore potential future change and elements of uncertainty, providing a valuable analytical device for within a spatial context. Scenario analysis allows exploration of potential future change and elements of uncertainty within a spatial context to support decision- and policy-making processes. When combined with participatory modelling, it provides a means of engaging stakeholders to increase identification of management interventions and sustainable outcomes.
This research aims to help land managers and policy makers anticipate how future changes may affect the delivery of the goods and benefits from woodlands.
Exploration of the resilience of woodlands to future change by assessing how ecosystem service values and natural capital stocks of woodlands may be affected through:
a) the application of the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (UK NEA) scenarios at different scales
b) different management approaches, e.g. forest diversification through the application of forest management alternatives
This research has applied the UK NEA scenarios through a simulation approach to express likely changes to UK woodlands under six explorative storylines at national, regional and local scales. The scenarios show differences in species diversification and management at the different scales, with consequences for the provision of goods and benefits from the woodlands.