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The spatial implementation of Ecological Site Classification (ESC) has been amended to include future climate layers of accumulated temperature (AT), moisture deficit (MD), and wind exposure (DAMS) in a Geographical Information (GI) environment.
In addition, the ESC model has been developed to couple MD and soil moisture regime (SMR) for the summer months. This allows the default values of summer SMR that have been assigned to major soil groups in the baseline climate, to be adjusted in the future climate.
The method for adjustment is based upon the relationship between available water capacity (AWC) and MD, published as Table 6 in Forestry Commission Bulletin 124 – An Ecological Site Classification for Forestry in Great Britain.
It is important that the suitability changes are not interpreted out of context. These are national analyses and should not be used for site or forest-scale planning. They give an indication of the regional trends in suitability. Decisions made at a site or forest block level must take account of the soil type and site conditions.
The model uses coarse resolution data: climate variable resolution is 5 km, and the soil quality data has been interpreted from the digital Soil Survey of England and Wales soil map, published at a scale of 1:250,000 (NATMAP – Cranfield University). The primary Soil Series of each mapped Soil Association has been used to allocate values of Soil Moisture Regime (SMR) and Soil Nutrient Regime (SNR).
Suitability maps have been generated on average climate data. No account has been taken of the impact of extreme events on tree species, other than presenting the high emissions future scenarios as a worst case example. In 2008, we will have access to UKCIP08 climate simulations which are expected to improve our knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as drought and winter rainfall.
Maps are displayed in a new window. File sizes average 60K and dimensions are 440 by 620 pixels.
|Species||2050 low emissions||2050 high emissions||2080 low emissions||2080 high emissions|
|Common alder||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Ash||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Beech||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Corsican pine||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Downy birch||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Douglas fir||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|European larch||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Japanese larch||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Lodgepole pine||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Norway spruce||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Pedunculate oak||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Silver birch||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Sweet chestnut||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Sessile oak||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Scots pine||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Sitka spruce||View map||View map||View map||View map|
|Sycamore||View map||View map||View map||View map|
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