The changing climate of the UK: now and in the future

 

Climate change: Impacts on UK forests - Chapter 2
By Mike Hulme

Key findings

• There is convincing evidence that human activities, notably the burning of fossil coal, oil and gas for energy and changing land use, are altering the global climate. 
• Analysis of historic climate data confirms that the UK climate has recently been warming at a rate of between 0.1ēC and 0.2ēC per decade; cold days are fewer, hot days are more frequent, and the growing season has lengthened. More of the annual precipitation falls in winter and less in summer, and more of the increased winter precipitation falls in heavier events. 
• Future warming over the UK during the 21st century is likely to be in the range of 0.1ēC to 0.3ēC per decade, with more rapid warming in the southeast compared to the northwest. Warm years, such as 1997, will become increasingly frequent – for some scenarios by the 2080s, nearly all years will be warmer than 1997. 
• Winters in the UK are likely to become wetter, summers perhaps a little drier. Summer soil moisture levels will decrease. Precipitation events, especially in the winter half-year, are likely to become more intense. 
• There is rather mixed evidence for changes to the storm regime of the UK. Very severe winter gales may increase in number, as may summer gales, but the changes are not large and the conclusion is not robust. 
• Climate warming will cause further rises in sea-level around the UK shoreline – by between 1 cm and 10 cm per decade over the next 100 years. Relative sea-level will increase the most in the areas where land is already sinking, for example the southeast, and will increase the least in the north and west. Extreme high water levels for many parts of the UK shoreline are likely to increase.

Next: Chapter 3 - Climate change and damage to trees caused by extremes of temperature

Previous: Chapter 1 - Global climate change: setting the context