Climate change impacts

 

This programme addresses the complex issues of the direct effects of predicted global climate change with the principal objective of providing guidance on climate change adaptation. This objective will be achieved through three approaches, monitoring, impact studies and modelling. The monitoring element is largely being conducted through existing Forest Research networks including the National Inventory of Woodland and Trees (NIWT), the Forest Condition Survey and the EU/ICP-Forests Level I and II networks. The network of weather stations, largely associated with the Level II network also contribute to climate change monitoring while the recent establishment of an international phenology garden at Alice Holt is specifically aimed at climate change monitoring. Impact study research using the open top chamber facility at Headley is now concentrating on the effects of ozone pollution and contributing to the development of critical load assessment methodologies. Two approaches to modelling the effects of climate change are being followed; process modelling is being taken forward by close integration with the programme Process modelling and data systems, based on the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. As a more immediate route to providing guidance on adaptation measures, ESC (Ecological Site Classification) has been modified to incorporate climate change scenarios and is being further developed to strengthen its knowledge base and incorporate additional functions relevant to climate change prediction. The final element of research is investigating the potential role of provenance selection for climate change adaptation through re-interpretation of existing provenance trials. New provenance trials for climate change research will be considered on the basis of these analyses. Information on all aspects of this research are available from the programme internet pages (www.forestresearch.gov.uk/climatechange).

Planned outputs are an information note on ozone and forest trees and peer reviewed publications to give scientific support to the strategic decisions that government may have to make on adaptation to climate change. This programme is also developing guidance for the Forestry Commission based on reviews of climate change impacts on tress.

Strongly linked to this programme and to the Ecological site classification programme is the Forestry Commission contribution to the multi-agency MONARCH project – Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate Change – which is examining the potential impacts of environmental change on conservation of biodiversity. The research is led by the Environmental Change Institute of Oxford University and further details can be found on their website at www.eci.ox.ac.uk/biodiversity/monarch.html.

The Forestry Commission contribution to the UK Environmental Change Network is included within this programme. Established in 1994, the aim of this network is to obtain long-term data sets, from a range of sites, to enable environmental change to be identified, and to assist in the improved understanding of the causes of such change. Measurements are made on atmospheric, soil and water chemistry, as well as a range of biological data to enable environmental effects on various aspects of the ecosystem, e.g. moths and climate, to be examined (see www.forestresearch.gov.uk/website/forestresearch.nsf/ByUnique/HCOU-4U4JA7 for further details).

Commissioned reports

Summary:

This study was commissioned by the Forestry Commission and DEFRA in the light of the increasing interest in Short Rotation Forestry (SRF). The overall aim was to provide a preliminary overview of the potential impacts of SRF on biodiversity, soils, hydrology and landscape in order to inform policy and strategy and provide reference for planning research. There was also concern over possible pest and disease issues.

Date: February 2006
Title: A Review of the Potential Impacts of Short Rotation Forestry
Author: Pat Hardcastle
Full report: PDF