| | General Comments |
| 5.1 | In total 79 respondents commented on the scenarios presented in the consultation document. Responses differed markedly with respect to their level of detail and analysis. Some simply referred to them in passing, while others considered them in more detail. |
| 5.2 | The majority of respondents recognised that the scenarios were not mutually exclusive and discussed the relative merits or otherwise of each, sometimes going on to express a preferred combination. Table : Preference of respondents to different scenarios
| Scenario | Number of responses | % of responses to this question | % of overall responses (194) | | Market Forces | 1 | 1 | 1 | Integrated Rural Economy | 26 | 33 | 13 | | Environmental | 7 | 9 | 4 | | Present Projected | 9 | 11 | 5 | | Combination | 33 | 42 | 17 |
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| 5.3 | As indicated by the above table, a combination approach received the greatest support. Where the respondents did express a preference for a single scenario, the Integrated Rural Economy scenario was the most popular, followed by the Present Projected scenario, the Environmental scenario, and lastly the Market Forces scenario. |
| 5.4 | Analysis of the combination choices revealed a strong preference for the Integrated Rural Economy scenario which featured in all but one of the combination choices. |
| | KEY BENEFITS AND DISBENEFITS OF EACH SCENARIO |
| | Scenario1: Market Forces |
| 5.5 | A number of respondents from the forestry industry felt that market forces will be the dominant influence over the forestry industry for the foreseeable future and that this will be the way forward (particularly if given fair fiscal and regulatory treatment by Government). It was suggested that to portray market forces as a "negative doom-laden scenario is irresponsible" (Hugh Wheeldon & Co (Chartered Foresters)). |
| 5.6 | The key disbenefits of this scenario were seen to be a decline in woodland asset value and a dwindling of environmental and conservation value. |
| | Scenario2: Integrated Rural Economy |
| 5.7 | In general there was support for the majority of the aspects of this scenario. For example, the Integrated Rural Economy option "would seem to offer the correct balance between development, conservation and the maximisation of tourism potential all of which, in the right combination [are seen] as being beneficial to the tourism industry in Wales." (Wales Tourist Board). It was viewed as generally favourable to the environment and particularly attractive in terms of its focus on community participation and landscape enhancement as part of a vibrant agricultural/rural economy (eg 60, 126). Some felt it was also realistic and obtainable (27) while others felt that, whilst the most sustainable, it could be the most difficult to achieve (146). |
| 5.8 | A number of respondents who supported the scenario made additional qualifications and comments including: - there is a need to take account of the major regional differences within Wales;
- expansion in woodland cover should not compromise valuable habitats or landscape character;
- greater emphasis should be placed on Continuous Cover Forestry and other management systems;
- revision of the clear fell policy is needed such that a supply of good quality timber (both soft and hardwood) is continuously available;
- planting and management of woodlands should be based on achieving a high quality timber resource with construction timber in mind (e.g. larch, Douglas fir, oak and sweet chestnut), not just what has been planted previously in Wales;
- both market forces and 'pump-priming' should be used to encourage new wood processing plants to locate in Wales;
- there should be collaboration between SMEs which can offer enormous potential in the development of new products and markets (Welsh Timber Forum);
- greater integration is required between agricultural and forestry policies.
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| 5.9 | A number of disbenefits of the Integrated Rural Economy scenario were raised, however, particularly by the timber industry. It was felt by some that the scenario was un-realistic and difficult to achieve - the "dream-on scenario" (Hugh Wheeldon & Co). Similarly it was felt that it could lead to a decline in the wood processing industry (UK Forest Products Association). |
| 5.10 | It was also felt that a dependence on subsidies could create a vulnerable and insecure forestry industry which was not sustainable (112). More widespread was the concern that there was little evidence that it would work, especially based on past performance (eg 48). |
| | Scenario 3: Environmental Scenario |
| 5.11 | The principle of gradually replacing the coniferous forests of the Welsh woodland estate with native broadleaves is one that some (notably within the nature conservation sector) supported as a realistic and beneficial option for a woodland strategy for Wales. |
| 5.12 | However, most respondents, including the nature conservation sector, felt that this option was too simplistic in its outlook and not viable in the context of sustaining the current Welsh forestry industry or creating multi-benefit forestry. Similarly, it was apparent that many respondents felt that the scope for creating employment under this scenario was doubtful. |
| | Scenario4: The Present Projected Scenario |
| 5.13 | Some felt that this scenario offered the only way forward. For example, the Glanusk Estate stated "Let us at least concentrate on maintaining what we already have and attempt to increase its quality - and therefore its value - before attempting major uneconomic expansion of the overall timber stock at this time". Those who supported it, felt it was the most realistic (bearing in mind the lack of supporting evidence for the Integrated Rural Economy scenario), least contentious, and built on an existing resource which was proved to work. Respondents who supported it generally felt that it needed grant aid/subsidy to be set at a more appropriate level. |
| 5.14 | There was a contrasting opinion, however, that it was an unambitious approach that could see a long- term decline in the Welsh woodland resource. |
| | SUGGESTED SCENARIO COMBINATIONS |
| 5.15 | Those respondents that favoured a combination of scenarios were often not specific about their choice. For example: "Given the diverse nature of the Welsh landscape, it would be naïve to expect one approach to suit all circumstances. What may be appropriate in the South Wales Valleys for instance may not be appropriate here in the Vale of Glamorgan or elsewhere in Wales. All four scenarios have good features, and it would appear to make more sense to adopt the right approach for the right place rather than compromising on a "one size fits all" solution." (The Vale of Glamorgan Council). |
| 5.16 | Of those respondents that specifically discussed preferred scenario combinations there was general consensus that the Integrated Rural Economy option (or elements of it) should feature prominently in any future strategy. |
| 5.17 | The nature conservation sector, for example, tended to favour an Integrated Rural Economy scenario in combination with the Environmental scenario, while some in the forestry industry favoured a combination of the Integrated Rural Economy scenario with the Present Projected scenario. |
| 5.18 | The support for the different combinations of scenario is outlined in the table below.
| Scenario combination | Number of responses | % of responses to this question | % of overall responses | | Market Forces (1) & Integrated Rural Economy (2) | 1 | 3 | 1 | | Integrated Rural Economy (2) & Environmental (3) | 12 | 36 | 6 | | Integrated Rural Economy (2) & Present Projected (4) | 4 | 12 | 2 | | Integrated Rural Economy (2), Environmental (3) & Present Projected (4) | 4 | 12 | 2 | | Environmental (3) & Present Projected (4) | 1 | 3 | 1 | | None stated or other | 11 | 33 | 6 |
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| | ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS |
| 5.19 | A few respondents suggested alternative scenarios. |
| 5.20 | Powys County Council put forward an "Integrated Environmental Scenario" in which: - woodlands are seen as a truly integrated resource that deliver environmental benefits and timber;
- timber is predominantly hardwood species suited to the climate and geographical characteristics of Wales;
- timber production benefits the rural economy and meets the needs of a high value market that is currently met by imports.
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| 5.21 | A further two scenarios were put forward by individual respondents. An Integrated Scenario "Market forces could be applied to the existing upland spruce enterprise resulting in the exploitation for many years of the asset built up, keeping existing wood users operational. Future conifer wood supplies reduce in the long term but timber supplies remain cheap and available on world markets. British-based timber users diversify, relocate operations overseas or are absorbed into multinational parent companies. In the absence of public funding for spruce restocking, (on the basis that this buys no public benefit), some felled areas will regenerate at no cost with informal "spruce birch glade forest" with a heather component of landscape and biodiversity value. Other wooded areas will provide dense regeneration for future timber production. Commercial pressures will result in much greater use of continuous cover systems that could facilitate more reliable woodland regeneration at no public cost. Relief from the cost burden of restocking would enable significant cash flow to be directed towards recreation, nature conservation work and woodland expansion. While employment in the intensive spruce plantation management would be reduced, there would be considerable employment opportunities in the more complex and labour intensive rural development forestry projects, thinning, hardwood management, wood fuel projects, landscape works and recreation development. The great spruce forests would be recognised as pioneer forest to be regenerated by nature, yielding funds for sustainable rural community development." |
| 5.22 | The respondent suggests that these ideas could be used as the basis for a Welsh Woodland Heritage Park, which converts low productivity forest and marginal agricultural areas into open forest of mainly native species interconnected with grazing pastures and restored wetland and moorland habitat. |
| 5.23 | The other alternative and more radical scenario is based on the assumption that Coed Cymru, the Welsh Forestry Commission and Forest Enterprise are all disbanded, and responsibility for matters involving trees are removed from the Countryside Council for Wales. The resulting monies saved, estimated at approximately £8m would be used to gain match funding from Objective 1 and 2 EU programmes. |
| 5.24 | Under this scenario, it is estimated that Welsh forestry would have an annual cash input of c. £20m (including money from private industry as well as from Government and EU sources) over the period 2000-2006. |
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